Odds & house edge

What one ticket costs, and what it returns.

Every figure below is computed from Luckotto’s published round terms at the moment this page loaded. Nothing is an estimate and nothing is rounded in Hookedin’s favour. Section 6 shows how to recompute all of it from two public endpoints.

House edge · round 1

40.60%

The share of a ticket price that does not come back to players, averaged across the round. All of it is Luckotto’s price for guaranteeing a fixed jackpot; Hookedin adds no markup to what you pay.

Chance per ticket: 1 in 336,699
Average return per ticket: 0.00005940 BTC
Ticket price: 0.00010000 BTCroughly $6.39 USD
Jackpot: 20.00000000 BTC

01Summary of terms

The whole product on one screen. Every row is either a fixed rule or a figure read live from Luckotto.

Game: 6 numbers from 1–36 · 1,947,792 combinations
Jackpot: 20.00000000 BTC, fixed
Winners per draw: 1 or 0 · never shared
Round ticket potP, across every Luckotto partner: 0.00009900 BTC
Prize bankrollQ, backing the guarantee: 50.00000000 BTC
Underwritten shortfallE, priced at E ÷ Q = 40.00%: 19.99990100 BTC
Tickets Hookedin holds this round: 1

02Where the price goes

A ticket price splits three ways and only three ways. None of it stays with Hookedin.

Back to players 59.40%

Cost of the fixed jackpot 39.60%

Luckotto ticket fee 1.00%

Of 0.00010000 BTC: 0.00005940 BTC is the average return on one ticket, 0.00000100 BTC is Luckotto’s flat per-ticket fee, and the rest is what Luckotto charges to guarantee the fixed jackpot. Hookedin adds no markup: every part of the price goes into the round.

You pay: 0.00010000 BTC
Luckotto ticket feeA flat network-side charge per ticket: −0.00000100 BTC
Into the round potYour stake, working for you in the draw: 0.00009900 BTC
Cost of the fixed jackpotLuckotto's draw edge, E ÷ Q = 40.00% of the bankroll it puts at risk: −0.00003960 BTC
Average value of your ticket: 0.00005940 BTC

03How the chance is computed

Luckotto’s rule G2 sets Hookedin’s chance of being drawn. Hookedin then gives one uniformly chosen ticket the whole jackpot. The two steps collapse into one expression.

chance per ticket = ( c ÷ (P + E) ) × ( 1 − E ÷ Q )

house edge = 1 − ( chance per ticket × J ) ÷ price

cStake reaching the pot0.00009900 BTCprice − ticket fee

PRound ticket pot0.00009900 BTC/rounds/current → ticketFundedPotSats

QPrize bankroll50.00000000 BTC/rounds/current → prizeBankrollSats

EUnderwritten shortfall19.99990100 BTC(P + E) − P

P + EPrize Luckotto owes us20.00000000 BTC/rounds/1/partners/… → prizeIfWonSats

JJackpot we pay you20.00000000 BTCfixed by Hookedin

chance = ( 0.00009900 ÷ 20.00000000 ) × ( 1 − 40.00% )
       = 2.970010e-6
       → 1 in 336,699

edge   = 1 − ( 2.970010e-6 × 20.00000000 ) ÷ 0.00010000
       = 1 − 0.594002
       → 40.60%

04Why the crowd does not change your odds

Luckotto draws one partner: w = ( A ÷ (P + E) ) × ( 1 − E ÷ Q )

Hookedin draws one of its N tickets: p = w ÷ N

One Luckotto ticket backs each: A = N × c

therefore p = ( c ÷ (P + E) ) × ( 1 − E ÷ Q )

N cancels — but that is not the same claim. Given this round's P, Q and E, every Hookedin ticket carries the same chance whether one sells or a hundred thousand do. Sales do change P itself, which moves E and therefore moves everyone's chance together — that second effect is section 5. Right now Hookedin's own chance of being the drawn partner is 0.00030% across 1 tickets.

05What moves the edge

Three inputs. The first one changes direction depending on where the round pot already sits.

Every point is this page's own pricing function run against a hypothetical pot. The edge falls while Luckotto is still underwriting part of the jackpot, reaches 1.00% — the flat fee alone — when the pot meets the 20.00000000 BTC target prize, and climbs after that because Luckotto then owes Hookedin more than the jackpot pays out.

More tickets soldEdge fallsTicket money in the pot is jackpot Luckotto no longer underwrites, so E shrinks and the edge falls — down to a floor of exactly the flat fee's share when the pot reaches the 20.00000000 BTC target prize. Past that point Luckotto owes Hookedin more than the jackpot pays out, and the edge climbs again.

Bigger bankrollEdge fallsLuckotto charges E ÷ Q for the guarantee. This round it is risking 40.00% of a 50.00000000 BTC bankroll.

Ticket priceNeutralA cheaper ticket buys proportionally worse odds and a dearer one buys better odds. Only Luckotto's flat 0.00000100 BTC fee makes price matter at all.

06Verify it yourself

Two unauthenticated endpoints carry every input. Neither needs an account or a key. Luckotto’s API reports Bitcoin in whole units of 0.00000001 BTC, so its integers are 100,000,000 times the figures above.

# P and Q for the open round
curl https://luckotto.com/api/rounds/current

# Hookedin's contribution, target prize T, and P + E
curl https://luckotto.com/api/rounds/<roundNumber>/partners/bc1p2g7v73y62h2hksphng68px87pcm04h30rfzpdqmrc3776xe90q5sn286wm

# then, with c = ticket price - Luckotto ticket fee:
#   chance = (c / prizeIfWonSats) * (1 - (prizeIfWonSats - ticketFundedPotSats) / prizeBankrollSats)
#   edge   = 1 - chance * 2000000000 / <ticket price>

Two checks worth making. The partner response's desiredPrizeSats should read exactly 2000000000 — that is the 20 BTC jackpot committed on Luckotto's side. And its payoutAddress should match the address in the verifier.

07Limits of these figures

P, Q and E change while the round is open. The figures above are this moment’s, and the round settles on whatever they are when ticket sales close.
Luckotto floors each partner’s draw allocation to a whole atom out of 2³² per sat. The lost fraction is far below the last digit shown here and is ignored.
Chances are per ticket, not per account. Holding ten tickets multiplies your chance by ten, because no two of the 1,947,792 combinations can be held twice in one round.
A house edge is a long-run average, not a schedule. Most tickets return nothing at all; that is what makes one of them worth 20 BTC.